British Prime Minister, Theresa May, thinks she's got problems? She should try being Mariano Rajoy, Prime Minister of Spain.
The two politicians could do well to talk to each other right now offering some advice, so similar are their situations.
Eighteen months ago Spain was in the same position that the UK is in now. An election, no largest party, no-one wants to do a deal with you and sadly for Spain they didn't have an ultra conservative pen-pal that they could call on to back them up.
It went to another election last June, that happened three days after Brexit, same result as in the UK last month, no largest party etc....
We were looking at the possibility of a third election that, as the date for which had to be six months after the previous election, would have been held on Christmas Day. They had to change the constitution (constitutional changes to be held in mind for later) to make it so that it could be held a week previous.
In the end, it didn't matter, the second largest party, PSOE, the socialists, did a deal with PP, Spain's conservatives, in the Autumn and a government, was formed.
PSOE, the socialists, literally stabbed their leader, Pedro Sanchez, not to mention their own voters, in the back. If you want to know how things might turn out for you in the future, PSOE, then take a look at the UK's Liberal Democrats and their leader, Nick Clegg. Not completely the same situation, PSOE are Spain's official opposition when they're not in power themselves whereas the Lib Dems are nothing more than also-rans but we should remember that voters never forget.
I don't know all the ins and outs of the situation with PP and PSOE and this blog is really meant to be about that.
One of the few positives for May to come out of last month's "victory" was that she seems to have, for now at least, dealt with the Scottish independence question.
The leader of the party leading the calls for Scottish succession, the SNP, two weeks put the referendum on hold, until at least after Brexit.
How Rajoy would love to be in that position.
For Rajoy the problem is also the region to the north also wanting independence, Catalonia.
Everything he touches seems to be a disaster on the issue and the problem of succession for the already autonomous region in the north-east region of the Iberian Peninsula just isn't going away for the Spanish premier.
Walk the streets of Barcelona today and you will see countless esteladas, the flag of Catalan independence.
The thirst for independence in Catalonia is definitely on the rise.
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| Two esteladas, the famous flag with blue triangle and white star demonstrating support for Catalan independence. |
I saw a video on youtube that said in the mid-90s independence for Catalans wasn't high on the agenda but that over the years since then it has become ever more important.
Spain's central government, PP, refuses to even enter the debate on independence, citing "it would be unconstitutional" (constitutions can be changed as stated earlier).
On the face of it, it being unconstitutional can be difficult to argue against. Should you change the constitution just because a few people ask for something?
Nobody wanted an election on Christmas Day, except me, that would have been awesome; so if enough people ask for it then yes, the constitution can be changed.
How much is enough? Or is it not about numbers but instead about who is asking? Not what you know but whom, perhaps?
I don't know what Rajoy would say but I would guess at 1.6 million people making a 250 mile (400km) human chain from Catalonia's northern to southern borders of France and Pais Valencia should just about do it.
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| The Catalan Way - 11 September 2013 (Photo courtesy of Peronella Arago) |
That's exactly what happened on La Diada, Catalonia's national day, 11th of September 2013. Later known as "The Catalan Way" it was seen as a way of expressing that 'the people want this, the referendum, so please give it to us'.
1.6 million people is 20% of the of the population of Catalonia. It is also ironically the same percentage of people that voted for Rajoy and allowed him to form his government. Had he lost those voters to PSOE they'd more likely be in power right now.
20% of the population is powerful. If Rajoy thought he was going to lose 20% of his vote to PSOE he'd do something to appease them, so why not this?
I've been interested in this subject for a long time. After two family visits to Barcelona in the 90s I began to be interested in the politics in about 2005. Back then the call for independence was getting ever louder but support for a referendum is what this is really about. A right to choose.
My first La Diada here in Barcelona was 2015, 1.5m people on the streets that day. The population of Catalonia is just under 7.5m, again 20%.
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| La Diada 2015 |
I say 1.5m people on the streets, that is just Barcelona. This is where the majority of protests take place. Try as I might I couldn't get a total figure for the whole of Catalonia but I'm sure it'd be much higher. I should point out in the interest of fairness that people were bussed in from all over Catalonia.
Also as Barcelona is a city that attracts a lot of migrants plus people from elsewhere in Spain as it is seen as a city offering lots of job opportunities Barcelona itself may well be the city that has the lowest percentage of its residents that want independence.
However, that again may not matter. I talk about politics a lot, it takes up a large part of my day. Not an hour goes by when I don't think about politics in some way. It is an issue among a lot of my friends, we do often talk about British politics on a regular basis. Not one of them is registered to vote here in Spain, neither am I, yet. They care about UK politics and they have a passing interest in Spanish politics but it's just not enough of an issue to get them to register to vote.
Not having an opinion about independence could mean that you just don't have an opinion about Spanish politics as a whole and for that reason you've decided not to register to vote.
The way immigrants, like myself, could see this vote yet go either way. I would be interested to see those figures. How many migrants live here, what do they feel about independence and are they registered to vote. They should care and get involved, I wish more of them would. Even if they disagree, debate and sharing opinions can create a better world. How do they see themselves, as Catalans, or does that not bother them?
A large number of people saw themselves as Catalans when I first came in 1996, now those people are calling for the right to decide if that can become a reality.
As I teacher of English one of the things I love to teach are idioms. One of my favourites is "if you give a man enough rope he'll hang himself".
This is Rajoy. Everything he, his government and his judges do towards Catalonia just increases the call for a referendum.
Catalonia had a non-binding referendum in 2014. Everyone knew it wasn't recognised as being legal nor was it going to be enacted upon, they just wanted to know the mood.
Turnout was below 50% but of those that voted the result went the way of 'Si' in answer to the question of leaving.
Earlier this year the two Catalan government officials that organised that vote were banned from holding public office for 12 months.
I don't understand what grounds democracy can be illegal unless you think it is dangerous. If it is dangerous what are you worried about? Asking the people to tell the government what they think about an issue shouldn’t be illegal and if the Spanish constitution says that is then that needs to change ASAP.
If I organise a vote among my colleagues asking them shall we go for a pizza or a curry on a night out is that illegal? Will I be deported?
It's really not wise to silence the people. The more you do that the louder they'll get.
In 2011 Catalonia's government, the Generalitat, voted to ban bullfighting. In 2016 that decision was overturned by a Spanish judge as being illegal. Either Catalonia has autonomy or it doesn't.
This is some of what I'm talking about giving them enough rope. It will be a cold day in hell before any Catalan mayor will allow bullfighting in their town but that's not the point.
The Spanish government sees that as being an illegal decision for the Catalans to make so how does the Spanish government see the Catalan people?
If you're a Catalan that doesn't care about independence but doesn't want bullfighting then you've now been given a reason for wanting independence.
Or if you're someone that doesn't like being told what to do.
"Hey, Catalonia, you can do what you like, you're autonomous."
"Can we have a referendum?"
"No."
"Can we ban bullfighting?"
"No."
"Oh"
I was told that two out of three things need to happen for Catalonia to become an independent state.
One of those is to become "internationally recognised as being the will of the people".
Earlier this year some of the Catalan government's top bods went around the world trying to garner support for their right to choose. Again, not even independence, just the right to choose, the right for the choice to be their’s and the right for their voices to be heard.
They made a fantastic presentation to the EU, met with Jimmy Carter and received a lot of praise. The people they met were at the very least supporting their cries for the referendum.
On Friday the 9th of June while the political world was pointing and laughing at the UK's Conservative PM for the second June in a row the people of Catalonia had their eyes fixed on the announcement that there was to be an independence referendum on the 1st of October.
The pro-independence lobby has said that they will hold the referendum and if the vote is to again 'Si' to the question of leaving Spain as it was three years earlier then they’ll declare independence regardless.
In fact they're not even going to hang about, 48 hours after a 'Si' vote will see Catalonia be declared independent. Spain will dispute this, it will go to a foreign court who will decree that Catalonia has a "right to choose". Probably another ref, in which the time between now and then Spain will have spent by adjusting the noose for their own necks and desire for those that previously didn't care may well now be 'Si'.
In fact they're not even going to hang about, 48 hours after a 'Si' vote will see Catalonia be declared independent. Spain will dispute this, it will go to a foreign court who will decree that Catalonia has a "right to choose". Probably another ref, in which the time between now and then Spain will have spent by adjusting the noose for their own necks and desire for those that previously didn't care may well now be 'Si'.
And now back to what I said at the beginning, if the UK were to give Spain any advice on the eve of the Spanish king's, Felipe VI, state visit it would be to hold the referendum on the smaller nation wishing to succeed the larger, fight the campaign and hope you win.
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| The Catalan Way - Closer to the bigger cities the busier it got. Picture courtesy of @M_Brokenleg |
The longer you do it the worse it will be.
Catalonia now has international support to at least hold the referendum, that right is internationally recognised.
If Rajoy continues not to recognise it himself then it soon may be that Catalonia votes Si, the vote is recognised internationally as being binding and those people will be willing to back Catalonia up should they need to.
Then Rajoy's opinions on the subject won't matter.
